Short answer

• Over the next 5–10 years (mid‑2020s into the early 2030s) Canada’s manufacturing sector is likely to see modest employment growth overall but significant change in the kinds of jobs available: fewer routine, manual roles and growing demand for higher‑skilled, technology‑complementary occupations (maintenance, programming, process engineering, quality, logistics, and data/AI roles). (occupations.esdc.gc.ca)

What’s driving the outlook (key points)

• Automation and AI: Adoption of robotics, industrial automation and AI is accelerating. These technologies tend to replace repetitive tasks while increasing demand for workers who can operate, maintain and improve automated systems. Canada’s robotics deployment remains low relative to other G7 countries outside autos, so room for investment (and worker transition) is large. (conferenceboard.ca)
• Productivity gains but uneven effects: Analyses project productivity boosts from AI/automation, but gains will vary by sub‑sector; goods‑producing sectors will see more modest GenAI benefits than services. That implies jobs will shift toward higher‑value activities rather than a straight net loss across the board. (bankofcanada.ca)
• Regional and sectoral divergence: Employment trajectories differ by region and subsector. Some regions and industries (e.g., advanced manufacturing, fabricated metals, machinery, aerospace, food processing) will grow or transform, while more labour‑intensive segments (certain small‑scale processing, lower‑value assembly) may shrink or automate more quickly. Job Bank and federal projections show small positive annual growth for manufacturing employment in many regions through 2027–2033, but with declines in some occupations. (jobbank.gc.ca)
• External shocks and trade policy matter: Trade barriers, tariffs and global supply‑chain shifts can cause cyclical job losses or gains in manufacturing (recent months have shown volatility), so near‑term employment can be sensitive to policy and macro conditions. (Reuters.com)

Likely employment patterns

• Net change: Expect modest net employment growth overall in manufacturing nationally, but composition changes: fewer low‑skill routine roles, more technician/maintenance, automation specialists, industrial data analysts, and production supervisors. Federal occupational projections show gradual shifts across the 2024–2033 period. (occupations.esdc.gc.ca)
• Skills in demand: Industrial maintenance and repair, mechatronics, CNC/robot programming, process engineering, supply‑chain/logistics, quality assurance, and digital skills (data analytics, IIoT, familiarity with AI tools). Soft skills (problem solving, adaptability) will also matter. (conferenceboard.ca)

Risks and constraints

• Regional disparities: Rural and some smaller manufacturing centres may struggle to attract investment and skilled workers, increasing inequality in outcomes. (OECD.org)
• Labour shortages vs. displacement: Some firms report shortages of skilled trades and technicians even as lower‑skill roles are automated — creating simultaneous vacancy pressures and displacement risk. Immigration policy, training and retention will shape outcomes. (jobbank.gc.ca)
• Cost barriers and adoption pace: High upfront costs and skill gaps slow adoption of advanced automation — this moderates immediate job losses but delays productivity gains. (OECD.org)

What this means for workers

• Upskill or reskill toward technical, digital and maintenance roles (trades with digital competency, robotics technicians, control systems, quality/data roles). Credentials in mechatronics, industrial automation, PLCs, robotics, and data analysis will increase employability. (conferenceboard.ca)
• Emphasize lifelong learning and cross‑training (multi‑skilling makes workers more adaptable to new production lines and technologies). (OECD.org)

What this means for employers and policymakers

• Employers should combine technology adoption with workforce development: invest in training, job redesign, and roles that complement automation. This raises productivity and reduces social disruption. (conferenceboard.ca)
• Policymakers should support targeted reskilling programs, apprenticeship expansion, incentives for capital investment in advanced manufacturing, and regional strategies to spread investment and jobs more evenly. Public support can accelerate beneficial diffusion of robotics/AI and reduce transition costs. (OECD.org)

Bottom line (concise)

• Manufacturing jobs in Canada are not disappearing wholesale; they are changing. Expect modest overall employment growth but a clear shift from routine manual jobs toward technology‑complementary and higher‑skill roles. Outcomes will depend on firm investment, training policies, regional conditions, and international trade developments. (occupations.esdc.gc.ca)

If you want, I can:

• Break this down by province or major industry (autos, aerospace, food, metals) with local projections and employer trends.
• Produce a short action plan for a worker (courses/credentials to consider) or for a regional policymaker (priority interventions).